Lafayette, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS65 KBOU 110513
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1113 PM MDT Sat May 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues through early next week. Still a few late
  day showers and storms most days mainly over the higher terrain
  today and Sunday.

- Well above normal temperatures likely Monday and Tuesday, with
  the potential for upper 80s possible across the plains.

- Increasing chances for elevated/critical fire weather conditions
  by Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat May 10 2025

For the near term, unseasonably warm temperatures will persist
through the weekend as upper-level ridging dominates the Southwest
and Central Plains. Temperatures will gradually increase, with
portions of the plains reaching the 80s today, becoming widespread
80s for Sunday. 12Z upper-air maps indicate that despite dry
conditions being in place under the ridge, there is enough
moisture lingering over our central mountains to allow for a few
afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms to develop as solar
heating intensifies. Current satellite imagery shows glaciation is
occurring in some of the upward building cumulus over the higher
elevations of Park County where the SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows
MUCAPE values of 500 J/kg exists. Potential for some weak storms
or showers will remain in this general area through the afternoon
until the environment becomes more stable this evening.

Temperatures will gradually warm even further Sunday and Monday,
with widespread upper 80s expected by Monday across the lower
elevations. Afternoon showers and weak storms will be possible
over the higher terrain again on Sunday, with some higher
potential for high-based showers/virga pushing onto the foothills
and adjacent plains resulting in some gusty outflows as they pass.

The main concern for the first half of the week will be increased
fire weather conditions as the well above seasonal temperatures
and dry conditions persist under the ridging aloft. While most
fuels remain above critical status at this time, with relative
humidities expected to drop into the low to mid-teens each
afternoon, and winds expected to near critical thresholds in some
locations, there may be a need for fire highlights, with the most
likely days for consideration looking to be Tuesday and Wednesday
when pressure gradient winds will be at their height.

The synoptic pattern will begin to shift by early next week, as
an upper-level trough pushes east into the Pacific Northwest
Monday. While the main impacts will be felt north of the forecast
area, northern Colorado will begin to see the upper-level ridge
move east of the region, bringing increasing southwesterly flow
aloft around Tuesday/Wednesday, and kicking off a more active
weather pattern by mid-week. A cold front will bring temperatures
to more seasonable values by Wednesday and Thursday, along with
some more widespread precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sat May 10 2025

Winds will remain south overnight with a gew gusts to 25 mph
possible at APA and DIA thru 10z. After 10Z winds will decrease
and become light and variable by 14z. By 19Z winds will become
more E or SE and continue thru the aftn.  Overall expect VFR
conditions thru the period, however, can`t rule out, isold
high based showers after 21z with gusty outflow winds possible.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...RPK